Update 4:50 PM PT: Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili will likely declare martial law, and fully mobilize his military. Looking at the numbers a large scale altercation with Russia will destroy Georgia. I bet US diplomats are simultaneously two deals: cease-fire and possible military aid(if the cease fire falls through). Georgia is one of our staunchest allies in the region, and we can't let them be smothered by Russia in this way. We will probably push for a cease-fire or a power sharing arrangement over South Ossetia, to preserve Georgia. Georgia can't afford a major conflict, and our interests will be hurt if they are occupied by Russia.
Update 3:18PM PT: 10,000 Georgian reserve troops are mobilized and 2,000 more are on their way back from bases in Iraq. Since there is no securities trading over the weekend we have no way to gauge the economic impact in the US. I expect that Russian ADR's will take a hit, and oil will rise a bit, but wait until this all pans out. Conversely, a decisive Russian victory will drive up confidence and pump their stocks. There is historical precedence for such an rise in prices, since during the 2000 Kargil War (between India and Pakistan), after India's victory they experienced a very bullish local stock market driven by local confidence.
Analysis 1:20PM PT: Apparently Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Condoleeza Rice have talked and are discussing the terms of a cease in hostilities. The only problem is we don't know Moscow's intentions right now. If we knew what their motive for this incursion was it would be easier to deal a diplomatic solution. The went in on the pretense of preventing ethnic cleanising, but we do not know if there is any other motive in this conflict. If Russia does hope for a military/political annexation of Georgia, how would we be able to ease tensions? I have a hard time believing that T-80 Main battle tanks, and Su-25 Close Air Support Aircraft are use just for peace keeping missions. There has to be a more sinister motivation for this incursion, any way Russia's actions in the next 36-48 hours will prove their intentions. We will wait to see what they desire to do.
Update/Analysis 12:58PM PT: All Russian ADR's on the NYSE have plummeted on this news. Russia has already cut off air links to Georgia, and could be taking the next steps for a major invasion. Russia's Air Force will play a key role in this operation regardless of how long it lasts. Right now they are probably running SEAD missions, to lay the ground work for an air superiority campaign. Air superiority would allow them pulverise any defenses and completely overwhelm the opposition. The only thing that is keeping Georgia safe is that the Russian's are probably reluctant to fly bomber and close air support missions due to the number of SAM batteries set up by Georgia. Interestingly enough it seems that PM Putin is the political head of Russia through this crisis. In fact, US President George W. Bush called Putin to discuss the ongoing escalation. This is an interesting development because we would have assumed that Bush would have contacted the new President of Russia, Dmitri Medvedev instead. This shows that the Western world still sees Putin as the man in charge in Russia, and Medvedev as his puppet. In any case, the next steps we should monitor as this situation evolves are:
- Mobilization of Georgia's Reserve Officer Corps
- Western Intervention
- Russian infantry movements towards the border
- Possible Second front in Abhkazia
- Expansion of Russian ground operations in Georgian Territory.
Pictures from the War Zone 12:05 PM PT:
AP/Getty Images Georgian MLRS firing on Ossetian Positions
AP Russian Armored Divisions Entering Georgia(Possibly a Motor Rifle Brigade).
Confirmed Reports they are heading towards Tskhinvali
Channel 1 New: Russian T-80 Tank with reactive armorMain Battle Tank designed for larger conflicts
Analysis 11:52AM PT: Any conflict will end soon through either a cease-fire or a surrender. If the conflict escalates in the next 48 hours, Abkhazia(another breakaway region in Georgia), has vowed to open up a second front. Russia, with the support of these two regions, can overrun the country in a short period of time. There won't be much scrutiny on Russian operations because of the media coverage of the Olympics. However, it's more likely that the UN and/or the EU will broker a cease-fire agreement giving Russia de facto control over South Ossetia. It will be interesting to see how this conflict pans out. In reality this is a proxy conflict between Russian interests and NATO interests. We can see who has the upper hand by the result of this conflict. Russia has resources for a full invasion, and we will sonn see if they want to escalate these tensions.
Update 11:08AM PT: NATO and EU have urged a cease-fire, and reports of a open conflict are surfacing. Russian PM Vladimir Putin has been quoted saying "War has started". We will probably get the full information in 8-10 hours since it is night right now in that region. Russia is probably stepping up its aerial operations under the cover of night fall
Initial Report: There are reports of sporadic fighting between the Georgian military and Russian troops, in the breakaway province of South Ossetia. Violence has been mounting for weeks now culminating in this "invasion" by Russia. The Georgian press is reporting 150 Russian armored vehicles have entered Georgian territory, and also are reporting aerial bombardment by Russian war planes. Fighting does not seem to be widespread right now, and it is just focused along the border between Russia and South Ossetia right now. Moscow's response was that this incursion was in response for "ethnic cleansing" reports, and attacks on Russian peacekeepers. Eastern European stock markets took a major hit from this escalation of violence, and the Russian stock market fell 6.5%. Expect an increase in oil prices if this conflict escalates even more, since the Caucus is critical for Black Sea Oil exports. We will report on more news as it comes in.
22 comments:
Shocked! Saakashvili is new fascist in XXI century! He already killed more than 1500 peace ppls in Ossetia! Make Love, Dont War!
Its good that Russia is demonstrating their military might, they will no longer be considered an irrelevant entity in the world.
Why does this have to happen during the olympics, this will detract from chinese coverage!
Ok, I think this is more of power show than an actual invasion. I believe it will be over in a few days and that too by a UN cease fire.
We had some previous articles on Russia, here is one of the better ones..
http://stockparadise.blogspot.com/2008/07/to-russia-with-love.html
Why is NATO worried about this conflict. Georgia was part of Russia for many decades, they are our people, the west should treat this like an internal uprising. When Kashmiri militants bomb Indian building, does NATO care?
Well any way before we get to speculative, we should all realize that by 6 or 7 we will get more news about the next day reaction from the region and the world. I have a feeling that this will be over soon. However, we can never be certain.
Wasn't World War II just a large mission to prevent ethnic cleansing? Why do you question the Russian motives?
Any way, Russia hasn't pulled out any of their better weapons like their heavy bombers and 4th gen aircraft, so you assessment is probably wrong. But, hell these guys are unpredictable we never know what they will do next.
Good for Russia, they are defeating genocidal maniacs like that bastard Saakashvili !
Unfortunately, few Georgians visit this blog, and we have no way of knowing their side of this argument.
Who cares about what those foolish Georgians think, they provoked us with that barracks attack, we will respond. We are not idiots who stand by idly.
This would actually make sense as a ploy by Russia to increase crude oil prices.
Trying to increase the oil prices higher than it is is a suicide for Russia or any other oil producing country because it has a significantly negative economical effect once a 'breaking point' is crossed where the profits are negated by inflation and devalued dollar. In the end they'll end up with less with higher oil prices and nobody in their right mind would want that.
Hello everybody!
In this case it is hardly true. I mean Russia's aim to make the oil prices higher. It really deals nothing with the war.
I really think Russia’s got into a very clever trap arranged by the US.
Let's have a look at the sequence of events:
1. 07.08. morning.
Georgia attacks Sothern Ossetia. Western mass-media are staying dumb. No any cries about aggression although it was a REAL act of aggression and an extremely cruel one!
2. 07.08. afternoon.
Saakashvily says: "Ok guys, we stop the fire. Let's start negotiations tomorrow."
3. 07.08. evening.
While Ossetians and Russian peacekeepers were preparing for the talks Georgia moved its troops to Ossetia borders and started heavy fire using “Grad” missile launchers (believe me, it's a terrible weapon, I know myself)
4. 08.08. morning - afternoon.
Tskhinvali is in ruins, hundreds of Ossetian civilians killed, mostly women and kids.
Russian peacekeepers attacked, over 10 killed, 30 wounded.
90% of victims are Russian citizens.
11 Ossetian villages occupied by Georgian troops. Civilians try to hide in the forests and mountains. The troops catch them and kill. The process of ethnic cleansing starts.
5. 08.08. morning.
Ossetia government asks Russia for help.
6. 08.08. afternoon.
Russian troops move into Ossetia and find 1400 civilians killed in Tskhinvali by the Georgian troops. Tskhinvali itself does not exist any more. (Well, the US supplied Georgia with a lot of high quality and effective weapons, heh)
7. 08.08. afternoon.
Western mass-media awake. “Oh those Russians!” they say, “They invaded Georgia” .
Result: Russia’s in the trap. It could not leave Ossetians without help and defence and automatically turns into an aggressor according to CNN’s version of events. The terrible Russian bear came to eat a democratic Georgian lamb.
Nice, isn’t it?
vadim, this is almost exactly like I thought. Additionally, I coult tell, that if you look at the region in Google Earth, you will see, that although not specifically specified on the map, there is only 1 road leading from Northern Ossetia to South Ossetia. It's also clearly visible on the map in this blog's post. In the upper mountains, on the Russian-Georgian border, the road goes through the mountains by a single tunnel (there's a photo of this place visible from Google Earth).
My point is, that by somehow blocking the tunnel (a couple of 500 lbs. bomb would probably even suffice), Georgian forces can effectively shut off a whole Russian (58th North-Caucassian Military Area) ARMY from reinforcements and supplies (except for very limited air support and supplies transport). I'm not very much into Russian military strategy etc., but this must be bad enough for them.
I don't believe, that Georgian politics would have the balls to do such a thing, because this might seriously anger Russian leadership with corresponding consequences.
The Georgian politics supported through all these years by the US have done enough to get these "corresponding consequences".
But they are just puppets. The puppeteers are comfortably sitting in the White house and the US Congress. Now they got what they wanted and became much more comfortable. They got but not all.
I bet their next step will be a demand to bring in NATO peacekeepers under the command of US forces to the region. You will see...
USA need a war and it must be a big war somewhere in or near Europe and Russia must be involved in it by all means. The US are facing too many problems in economy now - that's the reason. These problems can be solved only by means of a big war. And I think the American society is psychologically ready for it now. That's why Mac Cain will be the next president.
The only thing we can do is to be sorry for the world. The US will ruin it soon...
Europeans, Russians, Georgians and many other nations will pay for that. They are paying already...
I think both of you are right to some extent. Georgia wants to keep this conflict contained to Ossetia, and not expand the theater to the rest of Georgia. I think the Russians will do the same too (atleast with Ground Troops). Any further escalation will happen if Georgia attack Russian infrastructure to prevent an influx of troops. You guys criticize the US for the problems in these regions of the world, but US investment is what has brought much of the CIS out of the shadow of communism. And growth in the CIS is beneficial to the US and to Russia
but US investment is what has brought much of the CIS out of the shadow of communism.
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To be honest, we never asked the US for such an investment. Most of the people of the Soviet Union were much happier under this shadow of communism than they are now under the bombs. At least there were no wars between our nations.
The US administration is the source of all these troubles. This blood is on THEIR hands. Saakashvili was brought up by THEM. THEY trained his army which is right now bombing and killing innocent civilians in Ossetia. I'm sure they will pay for that some day. At least in front of God.
I finally managed to break through the line and call my friend in Ossetia. He's fighting already. His parents (farther 76 y.o and mother 72 y.o.) were killed by Georgians yesterday in the morning. They were hiding in the basement of their house in Tskhinvali and one of the Georgian troops killed them with a granade. Their 14 y.o. grandson saw that from their neighbour's house. And then he found thir bodies after the Georgians were moved out by the Russian army.
Now my friend will never stop fighting against Georgia.
Saakashvili must be taken to Gaaga!!!! Sweet couple Bush&Rise either!!!
Just FYI: http://rupor-naroda.livejournal.com/
It's a blog of a guy, who's living in Tshinval and is currently acting as a volunteer fighter on the side of Russian peacekeeper forces. Mostly reports of his friends and their relatives, neighbours and now also fellow fighters being wounded or killed in Tshinval and villages around it.
Would be great, if someone could translate some of his posts to English, so that Western society could know a little bit more inside information in addition to western sources, which seem to get most of the initial information from Russian and Georgian officials, which seem to push a lot of disinformation to them.
Nice to see you back. And again by having an interesting post.
Very good post..
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