To read yesterday's developments and the beginning of hostilities click here
Update 5:41PM PT: Newest Developments are now here
Update 5:07PM PT: It is hard to ascertain what is going on right now, because there are so many conflicting reports. But I have pieced together what seems to be going on right now. A Russian Airborne Division and their 58th Army division have control over the Ossetian capital. Meanwhile, Su-25 close air support aircraft, and Tu-22("Backfire") bombers are hitting Georgian targets. I heard reports of ballistic missile strikes, but it seems they are likely just mis-characterized cruise missile strikes.
Update 4:53PM PT: How quickly things change! It seems that Moscow desires to take this conflict to a new level. CNN is reporting strategic bomber and ballistic missile attacks on Georgian cities. US diplomats are calling this escalation a "disproportionate" response. We have started voluntary evacuations of our embassy in the Georgian capital. This conflict seems to have taken a turn for the worst. Russians have significantly impaired Georgian civilian infrastructure, and I believe a formal declaration of war is imminent.
Update 12:18PM PT: An EU and US envoy has been sent to region to mediate the conflict. No reports of an expansion of the Russian front. There are some unconfirmed reports that Abhakaz volunteers and some local Russian militias are participating in this conflict. The only thing that is certain is that there are many different factions, and that will complicate any cease-fire agreement.
Update 9:07 AM PT: Georgian Officials are about to declare a "state of war", which is in essence a martial law declaration and not a declaration of war. The Georgians claim that they have downed 10 Russian aircraft, and Russia is the aggressor. Moscow firmly denies this and claims that they are still running peacekeeping operations. Civilian and Military fatalities combined are between 1,000 and 2,000. Some reports claim that the South Ossetian capital has been completely destroyed. The Russians are supposedly mobilizing their Black Sea fleet, but still there are no new reports of ground troops entering Georgian territory. Fighting seems to have been sporadic throughout the day, albeit peppered by intermittent air strikes by Russia. Much of the media coverage has focused on the Olympics, so we likely don't have a full picture of what is going on.
Initial Report: It is now morning in Georgia, and both sides are taking stock of their gains and losses. Fighting has escalated a bit, and what was once a concentrated conflict has spread to other Georgian cities. Russian warplanes have target civilian and command infrastructure in Georgia. Heavy causalities are reported on both sides due to the severe urban warfare in South Ossetia. Russian leaders have released increasingly belligerent statements and seem determined to vanquish Georgia. NATO diplomats are scrambling to create a cease-fire agreement between all the factions. As the day progresses we should learn more about the present state of affairs in Georgia, and we might learn of any further escalation of tensions. However, there is some good news: It doesn't appear that Russia has sent any more ground troops into the troubled region, and they are waging war in a way to minimize civilian casualities.
As Moscow wakes up we will really learn the reaction to the news, and that will give us some insight in to how long this conflict will last. If nationalist forces within the country prevail we could see a long term occupation of much of Georgia. If more moderate, pro-western forces prevail, we will see some sort of a deal in the next few days. For whatever it is worth, this conflict will not spill over Georgian borders. Some are claiming that this is the start of Russia's aggressive takeover of former Soviet states. Though I think these actions are completely unacceptable, and Russia should not be allowed to occupy these sovereign nations, I don't think this is the start of a larger assertion of power. Russia already has economic control of these countries; a physical military occupation is not necessary to prove that. What is yet to be seen is the reaction of other CIS states, and whether it is pro-Russia or pro-West. I would think most of the Baltic countries are pretty scared right now because Russia shown a motivation to protect their borders. Also this brings a serious question about NATO unity. If one of these Baltic allies are attacked are the original NATO members ready for an all-for-one response? Georgia was pushed as a possible NATO candidate, what happens if a fringe NATO ally is attacked?
To read yesterdays developments click here
No comments:
Post a Comment