To read about the first 2 days in detail:
Day 1
Day 2
Update 08/12/08 10:14AM PT: Russia has supposedly suspended military operations. EU and Russia have worked out a 6-point peace plan, and conditions for the Georgian administration to meet before peace.
Update 08/11/08 9:56AM PT: Just as President Dmitri Medvedev has implied that major Russian military operations are coming to a close, Russia has opened up a second front in Abakhazia. Russian forces have captured Gori which is 35 miles from the Georgian capital. Russian diplomats have implied that regime change is their motive, and will not accept any deal without a regime change in Georgia.
Update 08/10/08 8:53AM PT: Georgian forces have completely withdrawn from Ossetia, and have supposedly been given cease-fire orders. Georgia hopes to bring Russia to the negotiating table. However, Russia is not confirming these reports and insists that fighting still continues.
Update 08/09/08 10:44PM PT: Russian planes have attacked airbases in Georgian capital. Obviously this is an act of war, and shows the Russian intent to widen their campaign. The next major escalation would be an official declaration of war from one of the sides.
Analysis 08/09/08 5:43PM PT: This had initially looked like a peacekeeping operation by the Russians, but it has turned out to be a much wider conflict than we had anticipated. I think this "invasion" was a very calculated step by Russia. The context of this incursion resembles the Israel-Lebanon war 2 years ago. Israel just didn't attack Hezbollah controlled regions, but all of Lebanon. The constant negative media coverage eventually turned the opinion against the conflict, and Israel withdrew. However, in Russia's case, the Olympics will detract from any media coverage of this conflict, thus giving them almost a free pass.
1 comment:
Aw, come on, Olympics are actually being almost ignored by people, because of this conflict. I can bet, China will be very unhappy with both Russia and Georgia because of that. I don't think it would do something about it, but I think they might say a couple of bitter words about all this at least...
You see, a lot of people here in Eastern Europe see it as a very important event in our history -- it's the first time Russian Federation is acting so actively since very long time. And there is a possibility to even bigger "news", like Russian and American forces fighting each other directly.
And well, Russians feel that they are ready and willing to act the same as USA acted in Iraq and Afghanistan after September 2001. NATO bombed Serbia in a similar conflict as well -- at least, from average Russian's opinion, Serbian and Ossetian conflicts are very much the same, especially now. Putin's and Medvedev's speech about the fact that they will investigate and document Georgia's actions (ethnic cleansing and destruction of Tshinvali during first days of the conflict). They are willing to eventually take this to Gaaga's Court.
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