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Friday, July 18, 2008

Iran Talks Should Lower Oil Prices

The US-Iran multi-party "negotiations" should help lower oil prices. Any positive result out of these talks will help diffuse the current tensions between our country and the Islamic Republic. A war with Iran threatens 40% of the world tanker-carried petroleum supplies. Therefore, oil futures speculators are speculating on a conflicts and subsequently increasing the price of crude oil. Conversely any negative development will have the obviously opposite effect.

Some view these talks as a reversal of US policy, and an inconsistency in the Bush Administration's message of not negotiating with Iran without preconditions. This policy has been ridiculed and criticized thoroughly over the last few years because for the most part the Administration has not given us a proper justification for it.

Direct talks with the Ayatollah or Pres. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad without preconditions or goals, would be propagandized and would viewed in the Islamic world as an American surrender. Basically, we should not talk with the Iranian regime unless we are sure we will get something out of it, and these benefits would outweigh any PR nightmares that come out of the talks. Second, the upcoming negotiations in Geneva are not a reversal of policy since we have engaged the regime in back-channel and proxy talks for years. It would, in fact, be a mistake not to participate because this way we can gauge what their demands are without dealing with the PR baggage of Ahmadinejad. Also, we would have the strength and the support of the international community behind our negotiators. Finally, most reports agree that Iran is on the brink of economic ruin: 25% inflation and 20%(and rising) unemployment. Iran needs international support more than we need their cooperation. A war would hurt them more than is hurts us, since even a small disruption in oil exports would rapidly decrease the cash flow into the country. Eventually, they will have to approach the Western world for trade and technology agreements.

Picture Courtesy of Wikipedia

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

We should engage Iran more actively, if we can't talk to our enemies who should we talk to

Anonymous said...

Stop trying to justify the Bush Administration's biggest failure

Sanjay Krishnan said...

I don't disagree that our actions have strategically benefited Iran, but I feel that there is unfair criticism without knowing the facts.

Anonymous said...

Nice we should talk to those fools

Anonymous said...

Why do we negotiate with people who deny the holocaust? They are crazy and need to be destroyed.

MasterSpeculator said...

I don't think we should talk to them.
But, we have to eventually. Yes, I agree we should not tolerate their anti-Semitic beliefs.

But, just by talking to them it will cool down the speculation of the oil part of the issue.

Anonymous said...

Talks with mullahs are useless. Iran is stalling for time. It is in mullahs interest to create chaos so that oil prices would go up. Remember 80% of their government operations are financed by oil revenues. Also, just remember that Bush is an oil man, the hidger the price, the wealthier he gets. You connect the dots.

MasterSpeculator said...

Anon,
You should turn off your TV, are you watching Fahrenheit 9/11?

The Bush is part plain ignorance.