Final Analysis 10:44AM PST: My analysis of the Bangalore incident was about 50% right. My judgment that Islamic Extremism was not involved was wrong, but I was right that the incident seemed to have a more sinister political motivation. The group that claimed responsibility are what I called Islamic Insurgents. They are local Muslims who believe they have been persecuted and oppressed. The Indian Mujahadeen was also responsible for an attack in Jaipur last year. This group also sites India's growing ties with the United States as a motivation for "open war". One should assume that this recent attack is in retaliation for the progression of the Indo-US nuclear deal. This attack just shows the vulnerabilty of US interests in South Asia and the interests of those who do business with the US. I think the Indian central government will have to consider using their CSIF(Industrial Security Force) for private industries. The CSIF was intended for infrastructure security such as railways and critical public sector industry. However given the recent developments, the private sector might need their protection. This would help ameliorate the uncertainty and nervousness abroad about the rising instability in India.
Final Update 10:41AM PST: CNN reported 46 deaths and at least 89 other causalities. They confirmed the involvement of the Indian Mujahadeen, who also had sent information of upcoming attacks to media outlets as well.
Update 10:12AM PST: CNN IBN is reporting 20 deaths and 56 injuries. The blasts happened over a span of 70 minutes between 6:30PM IST and 7:40PM IST. Islamic insurgents, the Indian Mujahadeen, have "claimed responsibility" for this attack. It is still unclear whether the Bangalore attack is linked to this one. Indian central intelligence recieved information from the group warning of an upcoming attack. Since the two attacks are so similar, authorites suspect they are linked.
Update 9:45AM PST: The CNN news wire reported 17 different blasts; at least 15 deaths; and all major Indian cities are in a heightened state of alert. A full analysis will be coming up soon.
UPDATE 9:11AM PST:CNN is reporting 100 injuries and 15 deaths.Cnn Link
Analysis- Amhedabad is in a volatile region of India, and is prone to the kind of violence I have discussed in my article. These two regions hit by serial bombings are ruled by the BJP party, and there are a variety of different forces that would want to attack them. Until we know more information we can not make a judgement on the cause or the motivation of these attacks. However, one thing is very clear: the attacks(if they are related) are more sophisticated than I had thought before.
UPDATE 8:52AM PST:The Washington Post is reporting that there were seven bombs, and 2 confirmed fatalities. There were 55 reported injures. Washington Post Link
UPDATE 8:43AM PST:New news has surfaced overnight about serial bomb blasts in the city of Ahmedabad. No deaths have been reported, and authorities are estimating about 2 dozen injuries. Stay online for more information as it comes in... CNN Link
15 comments:
India has lost its returns and there is rising instability is it time to cash out?
The government is obviously not in control of the situation. WTF is going on?
I would short sell IFN right now
To the author,
You seem to be knowledgeable about the situation in india. How volatile is it on a scale of 1 - 10
1 = Switzerland
10 = Zimbabwe
Ok here is the thing. As a democracy, India has an inherent stability. Democracies don't usually fail (Pakistan being the biggest exception). Very rarely is there a coup in a democray. But rising violence could erase the last 15 years of gains and remove India's competitive advantage. I would say India is a 4 on you scale.
* your
sorry for the typo
Good Job True Patriot.
I would say India before the Bangalore attacks was a 3, now up graded to a 4.
I say it is time to cash out.
If we see attacks in Hyderabad or Chennai, I am sure there will be massive stock market sell offs all over the place.
I think these attacks have to with US Nuke deal more than anything else.
Yeah cash out all short term investments, I am still bullish for long term investments
Wait for a few hours and then we can look at the Indian reaction the day after since these attacks were in the evening(remember Indians sleep early and wake up early)
I invested in some emerging market ETF's and Mutual Funds in 2002 that I was thinking of cashing before I retire (Hopefully in 4 years). When should I cash out? Do you think the Indian market has bottomed out and will recover. Or do you think there is going to be a complete collapse.
Hey, Anon.
I really think India in the short term is a risky play.
I am sure the internal economy is strong.
But, if these attacks become easy to execute and routine that signals a major issue.
You should really consider the global economy as a whole due the type of ETF's you are into.
If owned ETF's in Emerging markets,since 2002 I would say their run is over atleast for the next 2 years.
I would sell those now, wait till the growth story becomes a real deal again and then buy in again.
In the end its your call.
I would like to add couple more point that :
1. A hindu nationalist government in India is good not only for India but USA .
2. Present government is not just bunch of ordinary criminals but all hand in glove with Islamic fundamentalist and have deep nexus with likes of Bin Laden, Dawood et all. This explains why soon after acquiring power at center they repealed anti terrorism law like POTA framed by BJP government.
3. They have also cancelled all development and infrasturucture projects initiated by previous government.
4. But this was not sufficient, to weaken countries science , research activities they left no stone unturned by intoducing heavy caste and muslim reservations in top institutes like IIT, AIIMS and IIM, denying admission to thousands of meretorious and deserving candidates.
5. To appease muslim they are not introducing any population control measure so that they can overtake hindus and make this country an ISLAMIC country as soon as possible. In last 60 years muslim population witnessed 15 times increase fro 20 million to reach 300 million. but officially they dont declare it. and say muslims are hardly 200 million.
6. US should sign nuclear deal only when Indian government show evidence to implement population control policy like one child policy to all religion. My muslim friends in India usually have 10-20 kids per family.
If you guys want to write large comments submit a story
Great point, use the "Submit Article" link your full name, your city and country.
We will publish in the main page.
These attacks are supposedly revenge for the 2002 riots, according to the Jerusalem Post.
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