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Thursday, July 10, 2008

Watch South Asian Political Scene


Investors commonly make the big mistake of discounting the impact of local and international politics on the stock market. I feel that the ongoing politics of South Asia are not given enough importance. As growth slows and inflation rises in India, we will soon see the impact in our local business who have invested heavily in India. India's newly liberalized economy is volatile and will fall if there is a chance of political instability. Likewise, political instability in neighboring Pakistan will also trigger nervousness and uncertainty in the Indian public.
Picture: Chennai taken by Sanjay Krishnan

Things to watch for:
  • Parliament proceedings on the US Nuclear Deal - (If it falls through it is likely that the ruling Congress party will be ousted; also will show the strength of protectionist factions in India)
  • Any revision of Indian growth or inflation numbers
  • Any change in Indian government subsidies
  • Impact of rising leftist influence
  • Instability in Pakistan
  • South Asian Monsoon Rains
Stocks to Watch:
IFN - India Fund
FNI - Chindia fund
IBN - ICICI Bank
INFY - INFOSYS Technologies
WIT - Wipro Technologies

4 comments:

MasterSpeculator said...

One important thing to note is that the reserve bank is taking on a lot of debt.
Bailing out people.

Inflation is massive in India.

Anonymous said...

Your analysis of India is on-spot.

I agree, CPI(M) will not allow this deal to go through. They are staunchly against it.

MasterSpeculator said...

Stocks to watch:

IIF Morgan Stanley India Fund
IFN The India Fund
MINDX, Mutual Fund, Matthews India Fund.

Sanjay Krishnan said...

This article describes how Indian markets are affected by weakness in the UPA govt.
http://www.financialexpress.com/news/Weekly-review-Sensex-ends-in-green/334780/